I am somewhat unsure if this is a spike or root at the moment, but it's starting to show signs of being a spike: mitten 'sectioning', no velum, and much less tender flesh than a new root. October, November, and December is also "spike season", further solidifying that this may be a spike.
This will be the first time blooming since purchase and a solid sign that this phal has recovered from its sunburn.
EDIT:
One week has passed and I am now 100% sure it is a spike! I have inserted a metal rod and rubber band, ready to steak the spike when the time comes.